…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY…

[3:51 PM] A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the upcoming winter system expected to move through late tonight and continue through the early hours of Saturday. Be prepared for winter driving conditions if you are planning travel Friday into Friday night.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Cincinnati. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected. With warm ground temperatures, ice should not be a major problem on the ground. Most ice build up would be on trees and elevated surfaces such as bridges.

Trees do not have serious problems until 1/2 inch or ice accumulates and this storm should be much less. An extended period of sleet would increase icing issues but that does not currently appear to be a big concern. Storm total snow accumulations have not really changed but icing potential has lessened some.

 

This storm came together a bit differently than earlier expected. It will still have a significant impact but much less than earlier expected. As usual, many people jumped on earlier computer models of 20 inches of snow. One internet weather service said this would be the “storm of a lifetime”. It won’t be. It will make a mess of evening rush hour in Cincinnati. Conditions may start deteriorating near or shortly after noon.

Temperatures will be frigid over the weekend with some wind on the back side of the storm Saturday morning. Another system could give us an inch or two of snow Monday with more arctic cold to follow. A significant warm-up is expected in about a week or so.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
323 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay,
Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington,
Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton,
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta,
Brooksville, Marysville, Delaware, Urbana, Springfield, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Dayton, Kettering,
Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Hamilton,
Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro,
Wilmington, Blanchester, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Hillsboro, and Greenfield
323 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
  Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. Additional information can be found at
www.weather.gov/iln as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

A winter weather advisory has been issued instead of a winter storm warning because of the peculiar and confusing nature of National Weather Service Wilmington’s advisory criteria. Even though the greatest number of accidents occur at lower accumulation amounts, lesser advisories are applied to lower amounts than higher amounts. Advisories and warnings are not generally tied to pavement temperatures and seasonal differences. A 6-inch snow in April which does not stick on pavement would have a warning while a 3-inch snow in January, which greatly affects roads, gets an advisory. Additionally, NWS Wilmington has divided their forecast area so different zones have different advisory criteria. Don’t try to figure it out. You’ll get a headache.

Image result for Wilmington OH NWS winter weather advisory criteria

watch2

 

 


	

Winter Storm Watch in effect from January 12, 07:00 AM EST until January 13, 10:00 AM EST

Winter Storm Watch

While total snow accumulations will be marginal for Winter Storm criteria, a lot of questions remain with this storm. Significant freezing rain and/or sleet may fall during transition from rain to snow. More freezing rain and sleet would cut down on snow totals. It is important to remember for those doing snow removal that sleet is very problematic.

You have heard that one inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow, a ratio which is often much higher. I know from past experience that one inch of sleet equals 10-20 inches of snow in weight because of its high density and lack of air pockets. If we get extended freezing rain we could have ice and power line problems. Extended sleet would cut down on snow totals but would be as problematic and as heavy to remove as heavy snow, 10-20 inches of snow weight if we get one inch of sleet. So, be prepared for significant driving and snow removal issues. Be careful with the ratios I discussed. I am not predicting 10-20 inches of snow (forecast is 2-4 inches), just the weight of such if we get an inch of sleet. 

Oh, and by the way, another couple inches of snow is possible Monday. Too early for details but it will be frigid for a few days before January thaw part II arrives.

–Ron Rothhaas

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Marysville,
Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden,
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia,
Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington,
Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon,
Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
411 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions, including through the Friday afternoon
  commute. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and locally
  higher amounts. In addition ice accumulations of up to one
  tenth of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, Southwest and
  West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Day 7 image not available

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update

[7:54 PM] On Friday, we expect rain to change to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, before changing to snow. This changeover will happen at different times depending on your location. Everyone should be prepared for ice and snow accumulations Friday into Friday night.

[7:55 PM] Depending on the actual track and strength of the system, some areas will see heavier accumulations than others by Friday night. Stay tuned for further updates.

——————————————

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.A low pressure system is forecast to move northeast from the
Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday.
Rain is expected to transition over to a wintry mix Friday afternoon
and then gradually change over to snow Friday night. Accumulating
snow will be likely along with some ice accumulation. Any slight
track differences with this system will have large implications on
the potential weather types and impacts. This weather event will have
to be watched carefully as the week progresses.

Point Forecast:
Mack North OH
39.16°N 84.69°W (Elev. 801 ft)
Friday
Rain before 4pm, then freezing rain and sleet. High near 39. North wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday Night
Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 19. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday
A chance of snow, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 23.

Day 7 image not available

Check back to the Arbor Doctor Weather Blog for future updates.

ODA Announces 2018 Gypsy Moth Treatment Project Open Houses

While all is quite in the gypsy moth’s world, much preparation is occurring in Ohio to manage future gypsy moth populations this year as part of the two programs ODA administers:  Slow-The-Spread and Suppression.  Recently ODA released the schedule for their 2018 Gypsy Moth Treatment Open Houses and the 2018 Treatment Maps. Treatment blocks have been identified and are planned in19 Ohio Counties. Treatments will occur after caterpillars hatch this spring and when weather conditions are favorable.  Treatments are made to protect trees from damage from the leaf feeding caterpillars like seen…

Published on
Authors
Amy Stone

USDA Updates Emerald Ash Borer Map, January 2018

While emerald ash borer (EAB) may be considered “old-news” in the buckeye state, many may want to keep a watchful eye on its progression beyond Ohio. Each month, USDA APHIS produces an updated EAB Detection Map. Occasionally, we like to post these updated maps on BYGL for those that are interested in monitoring the spread of the pest in North America.

 

The most recent additions to the map include:

  • initial county detections in: St. Clair and Talladega Counties, Alabama; Queens County, New York; and Eau…
Published on
Authors
Amy Stone

ODA Announces New Finds of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid in Ohio in Athens, Geauga and Lake Counties

Earlier today, the Ohio Department of Agriculture (ODA) the Ohio Department of Natural Resources(ODNR) announced the discovery of a hemlock-killing pest in Lake, Geauga and Athens counties. The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) is a small, aphid-like insect native to Asia, which threatens the health and sustainability of two hemlock tree species native to the eastern United States.

 

HWA was first reported in the eastern United States in 1951 near Richmond, Virginia. Today, it is established in portions of 20 states from…

Published on
Authors
Amy Stone

Major Storm Late Week, Impacts In Any One Place Uncertain

A major weather system is headed toward the Ohio valley for the end of the week. After a brief January thaw, heavy rain will transition to a wintry mix then snow. Many are asking how much snow. At this point, it is impossible to say. It is worth noting that it is likely this storm will be crippling for someone in the heaviest snow area. It is just impossible to say who, although Cincinnati is in play at this point. Prepare for a major winter event but remain aware that it is too early to say exactly where. Be aware that travel may become difficult or impossible in the heaviest snow area and recovery may be slow. Areas just southeast of the heaviest snow could have significant sleet or ice while areas northwest of the heaviest snow will have lighter snow and wind. Heavy rain and flooding may also be possible before the snow with over 2 inches of liquid possible. What do we currently know? See below:

Day 3 image not available

 

Day 8 image not available

Here is our latest thinking on the potential for winter weather Friday into Saturday.

 

 

 

High Impact Storm Late This Week

Details To Be Worked Out…

[4:38 PM] Impactful snow and ice accumulations are possible for Friday and Saturday as a strong low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley. Here is what we know right now and what we are keeping a close eye on:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
259 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-062>065-070>074-
077>082-088-101200-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
259 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

 

A low pressure system is forecast to move northeast from the
Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday.
Rain is expected to transition over to a wintry mix Friday afternoon
and then gradually changeover to snow Friday night. Accumulating
snow and ice will be possible with this system. Any slight track
differences with this system will have large implications on the
potential weather types and impacts. This weather event will have to
be watched carefully as the week progresses.

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 8 image not available

 

 

 

Cold then warm then…

As we look forward to warmer temps this week, Dayton (4.1 Fahrenheit) and Cincinnati (8.5F) had their coldest Jan 1-6 on record while Columbus (7.9) had its 2nd coldest Jan 1-6 on record.

Temperatures could peak near 60 by the middle of this week but don’t get too used to it.

A strong storm system will organize for late in the week then move east. It will begin

Day 3 image not availableas rain in Cincinnati on Friday and then things get interesting. It looks likely that this storm will turn into a big and nasty winter storm with severe storms over the south and heavy snow or even a blizzard to the northwest of the center. The $64,000 question is where will the storm track? It is too early to tell. However, significant impacts are possible in Cincinnati at this point.

Day 4 image not available

Stay tuned.

After a few days of more bitter cold next weekend, it should again turn warmer for a week or two before winter sets in again for February. Winter is in gear. It may go away for a bit but there is lot more winter to come and this weekend could be one installment.

8 to 14 Day Outlooks
Valid: January 15 2018 to January 21 2018
Updated: 07 Jan 2018
Click below for information about how to read 8-14 day outlook maps
Temperature        Precipitation

Temperature

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR CINCINNATI TRI-STATE

A big concern is the very cold pavement temperatures after 2 weeks below freezing and several mornings below zero. Rain may freeze on cold pavement even if air temperature is a couple degrees above freezing. The pavement surface sensor below at I-275 and Kilby is currently 12.2 degrees F.

 

  • Avg Wind Speed: 0.6 mph
  • Max Wind Speed: 1.9 mph
  • Wind Direction: South
  • Precip Rate: 0 iph

 

  • Surface Sensor: IR275 NB Driving (0)
  • Last Updated: 1/7/2018 7:10:00 AM
  • Surface Status: Dry
  • Surface Temp: 12.2 °F

 

  • Surface Sensor: IR275 SB Driving (1)
  • Last Updated: 1/7/2018 7:10:00 AM
  • Surface Status: Dry

 

Day 1 image not available

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-071700-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0001.180108T0500Z-180108T1900Z/
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Chillicothe,
Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
357 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
2 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. The ice will result in
  difficult travel conditions, including during the morning
  commute on Monday. Total ice accumulations of around one tenth
  of an inch are expected. Little if any snow accumulation is
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern
  Kentucky and Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EST Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. Additional information can be found at
www.weather.gov/iln as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

Soil Moisture Condition Monitoring Report

Station Number: OH-HM-24

Station Name: Cheviot 3.4 W
Report Date: 1/6/2018
Submitted: 1/06/2018 7:15 AM
Scale Bar: Near Normal
Description:
Temperature below freezing 24 hours per day over past 7 days. No measurable liquid over the past week but no evaporation. Soil was wet before the freeze up.
Categories: General Awareness
Agriculture
Plants & Wildlife

What is the Condition Monitoring Report? Click here for more information: https://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=cm-scalebar

Be Watching Monday Morning For Icy Mess Possibility In Ohio Valley Then Warmer

A lot of details remain to be worked out but an icy mess is possible in the Ohio valley Monday morning.

24-Hour Probability of Freezing Rain Accumulating ≥ .01″

24-Hour Probability of Freezing Rain Accumulating greater than or equal to .01 Inch

It looks like warmer weather will follow Monday’s mess with more rain later in the week. The 8-14 day outlook is now showing a significant change in the US weather pattern toward warmer and a pronounced January thaw.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

The Insulating Qualities of A Snowy Winter Blanket

Every spring, Yardboy Ron Wilson shares a soil temperature map in his blog and talks about it on his radio show. This map is useful for seeing how soil temperatures are warming and when they are suitable for planting.Image may contain: tree, sky, snow, plant, outdoor and nature

I took a look at that map this morning, which can be seen here, and something interesting popped out at me. Soil temperatures are very cold over much of the country, approaching zero degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the midwest. A closer look at the map shows something interesting.

Soil temperatures in the lee of the Great Lakes, near Cleveland, OH, Erie, PA, Buffalo, NY, and Watertown, NY, for example, are quite warm, near freezing and similar to soil temperatures in the south. Why would temperatures in these very cold and snowy locations be so mild? The answer is in the snow.

Many people cry and wail in winter when it snows. Certainly some people in Erie, PA, were crying over the 5 feet of snow they got Christmas week. However, from the perspective of our plants, that snow is a very good thing. Yes, it can get heavy, but it also is a wonderful insulator. https://maxpull-tlu7l6lqiu.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2004/10/new_york_map_lg.gifPlants under all that snow are protected from the bitter cold, and their root systems in particular are protected. When all that snow melts, soil moisture will be replenished. Observe how the New York State plant hardiness zones, in the map to the right, in the areas adjacent to lakes Erie and Ontario, are as warm as near New York City, and much warmer than nearby interior areas.

So, what about areas that don’t have all that snow? In those areas, plants are fully exposed to the elements and bitter cold. Soil temperatures plunge and root systems chill as well. Sensitive plants may be damaged or even killed in such harsh conditions. Plant hardiness zones are actually colder in areas further south which get inconsistent snow and frequent cold.

So, the next time heavy snow falls, try to remember that your plants benefit greatly from it. It sure is beautiful, too!