THE ARBOR DOCTOR

Mt. Redoubt in Alaska is showing a steam plume and may erupt.  For more information, click here.

Regarding our earlier message about a possible major winter storm which will develop and could affect our area, but could move to the east, it now appears the storm will move well to our east.

The only significant effect of this large east coast storm will be to draw down another surge of cold air after a weekend warm-up.  All is not lost,however.  It looks like a significant warm-up toward late week or next weekend.

The weather pattern is looking quite stormy as we head into February, but with warmer air over the next couple weeks.  Please remember that an active pattern, even a warm one, could still produce snow in winter.  Any heavy rain event could threaten flooding with nearly 2 inches of water in the snowpack currently.

There are no big storms currently indicated in the coming week with the exception of the early week storm.

Ron

There are indications of another major winter storm early next week.  It could be as wild as this one.  There is still uncertainty and the storm could move to the east, but current thinking is we may be under the gun.  Stay tuned.

Snow and ice in the recent storm added up to 11.7 inches at my location.  This melted down to 1.91 inches of liquid giving a total for liquid precipitation for the month to date of  3.27.

As of late December, Cincinnati had been taken out of the drought designation.  However, last week we were still listed by the drought monitor as abnormally dry and were lagging behind for the month.  There’s nothing like moisture laden snow to replenish soil moisture!

Needless to say, local landscapes have been through two years of drought, heat in 2007, Hurricane Ike, and now another damaging ice storm.  Plants need good soil moisture but some are very stressed right now.

Ron

Well, it’s all over except the clean-up, and what a clean up it will be. 

Snow and ice accumulation varied some around town.  At my location it added up to 11.7 inches, including about 1.5 inches of sleet and freezing rain build-up.   Freezing rain build-up on trees and wires here was in excess of .5 inch with limb breakage on a number of trees.  6.3 inches of snow and ice accumulated here today.

Overnight we saw over 1/2 inch of ice on trees with over 1.5 inches on the ground.  I woke up to the sound of breaking tree branches in my neighborhood.

It’s far from over.

The changeover to snow is rapidly approaching as of this writing.  Intense snowfall of 1 to 2 iches per hour is anticipated with morning snowfall expected of 2 to as much as 6 inches, even 10 inches is possible well to the northwest of the metro area.  This is additional snowfall!

In addition to this, temperatures will fall to near 20 F solidifying the ice.  When all is said and done 6 to 12 inches of snow and ice will cover the ground.  Standing water will freeze solid. 

Snow and ice clearing will be extremely difficult and may take many days.  I have been saying this will be a crippling and possibly historic storm.  It looks like it will be!

Ron

Sleet and ice accumulations have reached one inch at my location.  Freezing rain has been falling and is weighing down trees and wires.  Another .25 to .6 of ice could accumulate overnight.  If this verifies, tree and power line damage is likely.  A later change-over to snow may result in less snowfall in the last phase of the storm, perhaps only 1 to 3 inches, bringing the storm total to 6 to 9 inches.

This is a very serious situation.  Be prepared for possible power outages and near impossible travel as this storm evolves.

Heavy sleet mixed with freezing rain continues in the Cincinnati metro area.  While icing on trees and wires is minimal so far in western Cincinnati, heavy sleet is building up.  Piles of sleet are accumulating around houses where roof troughs are funneling the sleet onto the ground.  Do not be surprised to find deep piles of sleet in the morning.

Heavy snow appears likely for morning rush hour.  The storm will not wrap up until midday Wednesday.  Heavy precipitation will continue through the night.  A crippling ice storm is ongoing in parts of Kentucky and will likely be spreading into northeast Kentucky.  This storm is beginning to resemble the crippling Christmas storm of a few years ago.  Expect storm total snowfall in Cincinnati of 8 to 12 inches.

Remember that 1 inch of sleet has the same mass as 10 inches of snow and will be very heavy to move, as well as very difficult to clear from roadways.

Ron

 

INZ066-073-074-OHZ070>072-077-280430-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090128T1700Z/
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BROOKVILLE…VERSAILLES…
LAWRENCEBURG…HAMILTON…LEBANON…WILMINGTON…CINCINNATI
325 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY…

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY.

A MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN THIS EVENING. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING…AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE 8
TO 12 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW…
SLEET…AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.