AFP – US meteorologists warned Thursday it would be a mistake to blame climate change for a seeming increase in tornadoes in the wake of deadly storms that have ripped through the US south. Read more>>>
Archive for April, 2011
Sorry for the back and forth, but we are back in the severe storm moderate risk area. From the NWS storm prediction center:
…A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADOES APPEARS UNDERWAY…AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…
It’s always nice to wake up to a little good weather news.
Tuesday, the weather outlook for today appeared dire, with a significant tornado and severe storm threat. The morning outlook has shifted the core of the greatest severe threat well to our south and east. Today will be another day with major tornado and severe storm outbreaks, but the highest risk will be from Mississippi east into northwest Georgia and up into soutern Tennessee. A moderate risk will extend northward into eastern Kentucky, leaving Cincinnati on the northwestern edge of the slight risk area with the main threat being damaging winds and flooding rains.
April rainfall at my Cheviot 0.9SSE location stood at 13.48 inches at 7:00AM Wednesday morning. The all time record rainfall for any month in Cincinnati is 13.68 inches in January 1937. Forecast rainfall virtually guarantees that April 2011 will go into the record books as the wettest of any month in recorded history.
Of course, this erases the drought, but not the effects of the drought. Many trees and shrubs remain quite stressed. Water displaces soil oxygen and leads to anaerobic soil conditions which kill roots. Therefore, these waterlogged soils can in some cases finish the work the drought started.
The SPC has us in a Moderate Risk area Wednesday and that means damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are much more likely. In fact, an unusually large “Moderate Risk” area extends from western Pennsylvania west to Indiana and south to Mississippi and Alabama tomorrow! We’re right in the middle of it and storms will likely erupt tomorrow afternoon into the evening, rapidly becoming severe. Read more here>>>
I have had 10.71 inches of rain in April at my Cheviot 0.9 SSE location. Forecasts indicate another 4 to 6 inches could fall before month’s end, along with one or more significant severe outbreaks. These rainfall amounts in many ways are unprecedented. Additionally, up to 11 inches is forecast downriver in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Major and possibly historic flooding is possible IF some of these numbers are realized. Anybody with interests near area rivers should monitor this developing situation. Additionally, this will have a huge negative impact on midwestern agriculture and could leave many fields unplantable.
More insane rainfall amounts are forecast. April rainfall is now likely to break or shatter the historical record in Cincinnati with 1 to 4 inches possible over the next few days. Current rainfal at CVG is in excess of 8 inches with 8.77 inches already at my Cheviot 0.9SSE location. There is a slight risk of severe weather Friday.
A severe weather outbreak is looking increasingly Tuesday night into Wednesday.