2 Snow Chances This Week, And Then There Were None (More Or Less)

I don’t like posting what computer models are saying a week out, especially in winter. Too little data goes into these early models so you end up with garbage in, garbage out. It leads to a lot of false hope and the impression that the weatherman doesn’t know what he is talking about. Actually, the weatherman does know what he is talking about and that is why responsible weathermen neither post early model projections without a lot of explanation nor jump on them as gospel.

Case in point is the projection from a few days ago for a late week snowstorm. Models were pretty bullish, and they generally agreed. Several young and foolish weather guys even posted this early map of model projections.

I am posting this map here not because it is the forecast, it isn’t, but because it was an early projection by a computer and it was put out there on some weather sites. Not this one. It illustrates my point.

Newer model data for late week shows this isn’t going to happen. In fact, very little may happen. This map wasn’t a forecast. It never was. It was an early model projection drawn from insufficient data input. While forecasters did add a good chance of snow to forecasts due to model agreement, they didn’t fully bite on this. Certainly not the amounts. As new data has come in, it is apparent very little will likely happen. I can’t rule out something, but it doesn’t look real likely right now.

Another weak system was projected to bring Cincinnati a little snow today. That one looks like a dud too although a dusting can’t be ruled out.

So, two potential snows. Now, very little if any. Another chance looms for late next weekend. I’m sure if a computer model can be found projecting 20 inches some gullible teenager who is desperate for website clicks will post it. For now, just be aware we may see snow on super bowl Sunday. Maybe. Very little chance it will be 20 inches. Stay tuned.