Winter Weather Update

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MD 23 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0023
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

   Areas affected...Swrn through nern Ohio...nwrn Pennsylvania...wrn
   New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 121958Z - 130000Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow at up to 1 inch per hour rates may
   develop across areas near and southeast of Lake Erie through the 4-8
   PM EST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...As large-scale upper troughing continues to dig into
   portions of the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region, and another trough
   pivots across and northeast of the Tennessee Valley, models indicate
   an area of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic
   forcing across parts of the lower Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region by
   early evening.  Associated lift, including through the favorable
   dendritic growth zone, appears likely to be accompanied by a band of
   increasing precipitation rates across roughly the Interstate-71
   corridor of Ohio, into the Cleveland metro area, and east
   northeastward through Buffalo and surrounding areas of western New
   York state.  Coinciding with further low/mid-level cooling to
   sub-freezing temperatures, as a sharp cold front steadily advances
   southeastward, this is expected to become mostly moderate to heavy
   snow.  This may include at least a couple hour period at rates near
   or in excess of 1 inch per hour, before heavier snow begins to
   develop/shift off to the east northeast of the lower Great Lakes
   region this evening.