The truth about climate change

by Ron Rothhaas

This graph clearly shows a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase over the past 150 years.

The whole issue of climate change features a spectrum of views ranging from those who claim climate change is a hoax to a rather large number of people who say that it is settled science and anybody who disagrees with that is a denier and should be disqualified from the discussion. Both of these positions are irrational and not helpful to understanding the science.

Climate change is real. There are measurable increases in temperature especially over the past few decades. This is a worldwide phenomenon, but it is most pronounced in the polar regions. Climate change has caused average temperatures to rise and rise dramatically in polar regions. It is also causing the polar ice caps to melt, not completely but they are decreasing in size. Sea surface levels have risen. Weather patterns have changed.

One effect of climate change has been that winters are starting later. Hot temperatures are continuing into the fall and colder temperatures with snow are initiating later. In the northern hemisphere this is due to the shrinking ice fields in the Arctic. Sea ice extent has been decreasing so that in the early fall there are large expanses of open water in areas of the Arctic that were previously frozen. This causes temperatures in that area to be much warmer and significantly decreases the source region of cold air which can move down into the lower parts of the continent.

This graph shows that arctic sea ice has been running much below the long term average and this year is running well below the season low year of record of 2012-2013.

The Arctic Ocean does eventually freeze and once that happens and snow cover expands over North America winter finally gets started but that is tending to be much later. Incidentally, this year the extent of snow cover in North America is higher than it has been in several years and that will lend itself toward a higher probability of very cold air moving down into the lower 48 states in January.

The problem with the polarized viewpoints is that people who say that climate change is a hoax are ignoring the scientific facts. We know the climate is warming. People who say that climate change is settled science are also ignoring the scientific facts and taking a position which is more religious than it is scientific.

The scientific process has us postulate a hypothesis and then test that hypothesis. Even once a hypothesis is proven it is then challenged by further questioning. There is really very little in science that is actual settled science. We're always studying more and learning more and our knowledge is evolving. Whether those with religious fervor for climate change wish to acknowledge it or not, our understanding of climate change continues to change and evolve.

While there is good evidence that climate change is at least in part influenced by human activity there is not definitive evidence as to how much of it is the result of human activity. After all, climates have warmed and cooled throughout the history of the earth, well before humans were having an influence.

Adherents to climate change ideology put forth a lot of unproven ideas as to how to solve the climate change crisis. Many of these ideas have limited science behind them and in many cases are motivated by politics or monetary gain. The fact that carbon emissions have actually decreased over the past 30 years in the European Union and the United states is ignored as is the fact that virtually all of the increased carbon emissions are coming from Southeast Asia.

One idea that is out there to solve the climate crisis is planting trees. As an arborist this sounds particularly appealing, but it is highly flawed. There are studies out there that show that even if we did plant a trillion trees it would not be enough to totally solve the problem of excess carbon in the atmosphere. Whether it would be enough or not it is a fool's game and here is why.

Currently, mass planting schemes see a failure rate of over 70%. Too often, money is put toward planting, but no money is put toward follow-up maintenance or the survival of those plantings. A large percentage of trees which are planted are improperly planted with one part of the root system already in the grave. A tree must last 10 to 15 years before it reaches carbon neutrality because of the carbon which must be expended to produce the tree in a nursery and transport it to the location where it will be planted.

We continue to cut down mature trees at a high rate. It can take 250 saplings to equal the environmental benefits of one mature tree and with a 70% mortality rate in new plantings the number of trees which must be planted to equal the environmental benefits of one mature tree is rather staggering. As an arborist and an environmentalist I am all for planting trees but we need to do it correctly, we need to fund generously follow up and maintenance, and we need to get serious about preserving our existing mature trees.

There is an old saying that I may not believe what you say but I will believe what you do. Politicians give lip service to the importance of planting trees and saving the environment but time and time again we see new projects come along where trees are destroyed with impunity. Too often, trees could easily be preserved with a little forethought but that is not expedient and it is often not done or it is done so poorly that the trees end up dying. We can do better.

In summary, climate change is real. Climate change is a real problem. Climate change is having very real effects on our planet, our weather patterns, and in particular the Arctic and Antarctic regions. The entirety of the phenomena is not well understood and continues to evolve. It is not settled science. Ideas of how to curb it are also evolving and are also not settled science.